On being wrong

Don't take what you read next as gospel truth. In fact, don't hold anything as gospel truth, because the world we live in is sort of wonky in its own good and bad ways. So... here goes nothing. 

"Always hold on to what you have when everything else tells you to sell your holdings. In contrast, sell off what you hold the moment you develop an attachment to it."

A tricky line to interpret, I bet. However, ignoring a pattern in the stock markets (and in your love lives) is called foolishness. It's also called history, just saying. I'll come back to the blurb in a bit, but here's to another Friday, and another red one at that, filled with mistakes.   

This Friday, 5 March 2021, wasn't a repeat telecast of the horror story from a week ago. However, my senior colleagues from work say that volatility is on the rise. No, that doesn't mean that the stock markets will certainly fall. Volatility is when out of the blue, your girlfriend thinks that you enjoyed making love to your ex more than you do to her. Mind you, your girlfriend's epiphany isn't tethered in reality. Certainly not the reality you know of. But... volatility. Could take any direction and you won't see it coming. Fun, fun!

One day, it's the US bond yields shooting up that hurts the market sentiments. Another day, you have Saudi and friends who decide to keep the world wanting for oil. At least wanting for cheaper oil. Or, it's just big-ticket institutional investors taking off along with their moolah for a holiday. Trapping regular, retail investors like you and me in perilously heady market conditions, of course. 

Two things here that I've learned during my brief stint at observing the markets full time. First, no matter what happens, it always pays to take full responsibility for whatever happens to your finances. Second, all those idiots who scream out of the idiot box making predictions about market movements... don't bother with them. You'll be way happier not losing your sleep over what direction the markets will take. 

Maybe, just maybe, the trick is to move with the ebbs and flows of the stock markets, stay prepared whatever direction it takes. Again, yours truly is in the process of learning about the ebbs and flows thingy, so go on. Do a little bit of your own digging and reading up.

Now, allow me to go back to the blurb at the start of this rant. I'll break that quote into two parts, the first half being "Always hold on to what you have when everything else tells you to sell your holdings." Let me know (no idea how) if this sounds familiar. You held a stock for quite some time, and it languished like a bitch. You kept hoping, and the stock simply wouldn't budge. You say the heck with this shit and drop it like a hot rock, and WALLAH! The stock soars the day after you dumped it. *Sobs* 

This has happened about thrice with me now. Tata Motors. Bought it at 66, sold it off when it got sluggish at 150, the stock fucking skyrocketed after that. SBI. Bought it at 170-levels, sold it off at 250, and then the thing girded its loins and did pulled an Usain Bolt. I feel it'll be similar with GEPIL. Who knows. No matter what happens, don't take this as stock advice. Please. I'm just some random chap. Another point... 

Boredom isn't a bad thing. But as I've come to realise, don't come to the stock market because you're bored. Learn Blackjack instead. It's apparently one of the rare games where the odds are in your favour when playing against a casino. The stock market demands Yoda-level patience and self-control, I gather. That twitchy feeling to constantly 'do something' doesn't serve you well. Especially at a point in time in our civilisation where you're constantly looking to fill your time with something, even Netflix. Sad. 

The second sin in the markets, in my humble assessment, is greed. Not the greed to be more. Not the greed to learn, earn or be better. Greed for greed's sake. It actually ties into the first point in a way. If the stock runs away after it's out of your hands, let go. However, if it's with you and you feel attached to a stock, especially if it has delivered some stellar returns, that's your cue to exit. Again, if you try to drink an entire river, you'll drown. Go with a bucket, take your fill and ideally fuck off after you've had your fill. 

The beauty of all this is that everything you read could be wrong, 'could' being the operational word here. It's like missing the admission deadline to a brilliant B-school because you don't like to check your email. Or... letting go of the woman who outright wanted to make kids with you. Maybe holding a stock for longer than you were supposed to seems like a better example, at least in the context of this blog. Then again, if you choose good stocks carefully, you're likely to multiply your wealth for as long as you hold the stock. Again, yours truly could be wrong here, too.

Isn't it a little daft that we're conditioned to be right all the time? Get the right grades, do the right job, marry the right one, raise your kids right, and so on the list goes. Because validation gives you a dopamine high like nothing else, of course. Post the right photos online, and Zucks and party will even push your content more on their fiddly platforms. Yeah, perhaps this blog included. 

The point is, we rarely leave room for trial and error, for letting ourselves wonder how phenominal the world is. I hope there's some way to get rid of blinkers that most of us (including yours truly) wear all our lives. Meanwhile, this video pasted below is from a time I was in college. It talks about being wrong and about how it may not be all that horrendous to err on the side of erring. Rant over, here's the talk 👇👇. Enjoy.